As the summer heat subsides, falling leaves and brisk mornings move in to instill a sense of calm and quiet. And much like the season itself, the fall cottage real estate market tends to cool off in the latter half of the year, typically offering a more relaxed environment where committed buyers might find themselves striking a deal.
But how might a not-so-typical year of economic uncertainty and lingering affordability challenges come to impact the this year’s fall market?
A tumultuous trade market takes its toll
Generally speaking, Canadian buyers are erring on the side of caution when it comes to real estate purchases, due to the impacts of wishy-washy trade policy from our southern neighbours. According to Re/Max Canada’s 2025 Fall Housing Market Update, home sales across the country fell in 62 per cent of markets on an annual basis between January and July of this year.
In Ontario cottage country, the story was no different. “Cottage owners stuck in paradise” read the headline of one Financial Post article covering Re/Max’s 2025 Canadian Cabin & Cottage Trends Report released in May, which revealed that cottage prices had dropped by more than 20 per cent year-over-year in some regions as sales “more or less paused.”
According to Jay Richardson, a Muskoka realtor, this slow market activity continued over the summer in her corner of cottage country.
“Relative to 2024, sales activity has declined significantly. There’s more inventory, there’s a softening in pricing, properties that come to the market remain for days or months—in some cases, much longer,” says Richardson. “So the current market, compared to last year? There’s no reflection at all. It’s a very, very different market.”
She attributes the slower market conditions in Muskoka primarily to higher interest rates, high inventory, and a more cautious demand.
Market expected to stabilize this fall
At the same time, Richardson sees the Muskoka market entering a more stable period where sellers expectations are increasingly grounded and prices are stabilizing.
“There is improved buyer choice, more [listings] available, and now the market is adjusting its prices compared to the past,” she says. “I have to say, it’s almost a refreshing shift. It rewards sellers that are knowledgeable and are pricing properly as well as buyers that are decisive and who understand what they need to do to get a property.”
Backing up Richardson’s observations is Don Kottick, the president of Re/Max Canada, who says economic headwinds should bring moderate activity this fall.
“Ontario’s cottage market has shifted from the frenzied pace we saw during the pandemic into a more balanced environment. Demand is still healthy, but higher borrowing costs have moderated activity and created more room for negotiation,” says Kottick. “As we move into fall, we anticipate a steadier pace of sales, with motivated buyers and sellers finding common ground.”
Looking ahead, cautious demand could also become more emboldened by factors such as the Bank of Canada cutting the policy interest rate from 2.75 per cent to 2.50 per cent on September 17, which will make qualifying for a mortgage on a cottage more attainable, especially when paired with softer prices.
Kottick also says that a key tailwind in the cottage market is the enduring demand for lifestyle properties. “Canadians continue to value access to nature and space, especially with more flexible work arrangements,” he says.
Still expect the fall market to vary by region
Of course, market conditions will vary depending on region and price class, with conveniently-located and luxury properties drawing more demand and keeping prices afloat, while other may be buoyed by low inventory.
“We’re seeing stronger activity in regions that are closer to urban centres and more accessible for weekend use—those markets continue to draw consistent demand,” says Kottick. “Luxury segments are holding steady, with well-financed buyers less impacted by interest rates, while mid-range properties have seen more sensitivity to affordability pressures. That said, inventory levels remain relatively tight in many areas, which is helping support prices.”
According to MLS data supplied by Donna-Lynn Doucette, a Simcoe County realtor, Muskoka sold the most waterfront properties in August at 64 transactions, while the Kawartha Lakes brought up the rear with 32 sales. Heading into the fall, the Kawarthas remain one of the most affordable cottage regions, with the average sale price being $827,750, while Muskoka continues to lead the price game at $1,761,785.
What buyers are prioritizing this fall
Kottick says buyers coming to market this fall will largely be end users, meaning they are buying the property primarily for their own use, not as an investment property. This means buyers looking for quality lifestyle properties with the ability for year-round use.
Turn-key cottages, remote work capabilities, and close proximity to amenities make up some of the other qualities Richardson says her buyers are seeking out. Adding to Kottick’s note on year-round use, Richardson says she’s seen a growing popularity in winterized cottages as travel to the U.S. has become less appealing to many Canadians.
“Clients of mine that would always head to the U.S. for winter are now thinking, ‘No, I think I’ll take a shorter trip, perhaps overseas, but I’m going to use my cottage more. I’m going to enjoy winter more in Canada.’’
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