While snow melts and flowers bloom, spring conditions are also bringing rising water levels. Consistent flooding has become one of the most costly natural disasters to affect Ontario. Last summer, flooding in Toronto and the southern half of the province caused $940 million in insured damage.
This spring, the Ministry of Natural Resources is predicting less severe flooding, but there are still risks. Thanks to a snow-heavy winter, the MNR reported on March 23 that the snowpack draining into Lake Huron and Georgian Bay remained high. There’s already between 100 to 250 mm of snow melt in these watersheds, leaving them limited capacity to absorb more rainfall. The ground is also still frozen or recently thawing, meaning it will struggle to absorb more water, causing run-off.
Thankfully, the MNR said that the current weather forecast doesn’t call for a significant amount of rain, so water levels should stabilize over the coming weeks. Although, in the areas where water levels are peaking, they will remain high.
There are 36 conservation authorities across Ontario that monitor flooding conditions in certain regions. Any areas outside of those regions are monitored by the MNR. To get a more comprehensive look at the flood forecast for cottage country, here’s what the MNR and local conservation authorities are calling for.
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Bracebridge-Minden-Parry Sound
The MNR monitors the areas between Bracebridge, Minden, and Parry Sound. As of March 21, the MNR has issued a flood watch for the North Branch of the Muskoka River (near Bracebridge) and on the Moon River (near Bala). A flood watch means there is the potential for flooding. The rest of the region is at less risk, but the MNR said individuals should still be cautious around bodies of water.
Water levels in the North Branch of the Muskoka River and Moon River are expected to remain high over the next week due to precipitation and above average temperatures melting snow. But the MNR said cooler temperatures overnight should slow the amount of water feeding into the watersheds.
Peterborough-Bancroft
The MNR also monitors the areas around Peterborough and Bancroft. As of March 21, the MNR has issued a flood outlook for the area. This means there isn’t any imminent threat of flooding, but residents should still be cautious, monitoring the weather forecasts for heavy rain.
Due to recent precipitation and snowmelt, water levels in the area are on the rise. Rivers and streams are expected to be moving fast. The MNR has advised residents downstream from Baptiste Lake on the York River who’ve been affected by flooding in the past to take the necessary action to protect and secure their properties.
Kawartha Lakes
Kawartha Conservation is responsible for monitoring flooding in the Kawartha Lakes area. As of March 21, the conservation authority had only issued a water safety alert. This means there’s no widespread flooding expected, but residents should be careful around bodies of water. Due to above-average temperatures melting snow quickly, water levels are on the rise, rivers are running fast, and ice-covered lakes are expected to break up.
The conservation authority added that there is the risk of some localized flooding in low-lying areas within the Kawartha Lakes watershed caused by precipitation and melting snow.
Haliburton County
The MNR monitors the area around Haliburton County, however, Parks Canada also takes an interest as both the Gull River and Burnt River flow into the Trent-Severn Waterway. According to Parks Canada, water levels in the lakes on the Gull River and Burnt River are above average this year due to warmer temperatures and earlier snow melt. The flow along both the Gull River and Burnt River are expected to remain high.
Last week, the Kinmount Dam on the Burnt River almost experienced a flooding event. Logs became jammed due to large amounts of ice in the dam openings. But the MNR and Parks Canada were able to remove the blockage so that water flowed normally.
Ottawa Valley
The Rideau Valley Conservation Authority monitors flood conditions in the Ottawa Valley. On March 21, the conservation authority issued a flood watch for the entire region, recommending emergency services and residents be prepared for possible flooding.
Light rain and above freezing temperatures will keep water levels high throughout the Rideau River and the Lower Ottawa River. Both rivers also pose a potential risk of ice jams. For residents in flood-prone areas, the conservation authority suggests ensuring sump pumps are working, downspouts are clear, a back-up generator is easily accessible, and no valuables are left in the basement.
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