Pink salmon numbers are up by the millions compared to recent years as they return to B.C.’s Fraser River to spawn, but the cause behind the surge is up for debate.
On one hand, some First Nations, researchers, and environmental groups credit the massive reduction in salmon farms in the Discovery Islands for the species’ valiant return. The archipelago, located on the northern end of the Strait of Georgia between Vancouver Island and the mainland, is a hub for salmon farms, but it’s also where wild salmon make the journey from freshwater rivers, around Vancouver Island, and into the Pacific Ocean.
In 2009, the archipelago was included in a judicial inquiry known as the Cohen Commission, which investigated the severe decline of B.C.’s sockeye salmon populations. Its findings pointed to a number of possible stressors, including climate change, human development, and diseases such as sea lice, which are spread among farmed salmon.
Out of an abundance of caution, Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) stopped renewing aquaculture licenses for all open-net pen salmon farms in the Discovery Islands in 2020. Farms in the nearby Broughton Archipelago had been closing since 2018, when a First Nations-provincial agreement was signed following years of protests from First Nations, for whom salmon are fundamental to their way of life. There are now no farms left in the region and, across B.C., operations have fallen by around half.
In the aftermath, studies emerged that drew a link between reduced sea lice and the removal of farms. One 2023 study from the Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences found the average number of sea lice per juvenile pink and chum salmon in the Discovery Islands declined by 96% between 2020 and 2022. Over the same period, the number of farms in the region fell from eight to one.
The Salmon Coast Field Station, which has been monitoring the abundance of sea lice on pink and chum salmon in the Broughton Archipelago since 2001, also found that sea lice numbers fell following the salmon farm exodus. “Our sea lice monitoring data have consistently shown a connection between open net salmon farms and disease and parasites in nearby wild juvenile salmon,” reads their website. “If stressors are removed—as we are seeing with the removal of salmon farms—wild salmon have a good chance for recovery.”
Following the surge in pink salmon this year, those that believe the farms are to blame for falling populations are calling on the feds to follow through with a 2024 promise to ban the remainder of open-net pen salmon farms in B.C. by 2029. But some are not so convinced the culprit has been correctly identified.
“Predicting why pink salmon come back or don’t in any given year is a rabbit hole,” says Brian Kingzett, executive director of the B.C. Salmon Farmers Association. He points out that there are a host of other factors that impact salmon survival and that multiple studies have shown farms can coexist with wild stocks.
According to data compiled from DFO and the Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC), for example, pink salmon runs averaged 9.6 million from 1959 to 1989—prior to the introduction of farming around 1990—and grew to 13 million fish on average between 1990 and 2023.
While the PSC also reports that pink salmon numbers have doubled since 2019, from roughly 8.5 million to 17.7 million in 2025, the sockeye salmon numbers tell a different story. In 2025, pre-season sockeye expectations started off strong before falling from 8.1 million to 3 million in 2026. When the run collapsed, Kingzett says reactions from activists didn’t add up.
“This year, activists pounced on strong early sockeye salmon [numbers] and claimed it would be a banner year for sockeye because of the removal of salmon farms,” he says. “The sockeye run then collapsed, but pink salmon did well, so the messaging switched to ‘pink salmon returns, bouncing back after salmon farms.’”
Meanwhile, an investigation conducted by CTV’s W5 found an internal government assessment that revealed the feds concluded salmon farms posed “minimal risks” to wild salmon and recommended reopening some sites.
Others, such as emeritus scientist at the Pacific Biological Station in Nanaimo, B.C., Dr. Richard Beamish, has said pink salmon could be doing well simply because the species is better at adapting to warming oceans. In fact, a study from 2020 found that global warming could boost pink salmon populations by making rivers more hospitable for spawning.
While the debate rages on, Kingzett says one thing is certain: salmon farm closures have devastated the industry. “Site closures and uncertainty about the industry’s future have been devastating, especially in rural communities on Northern Vancouver Island,” he says. “This has meant significant loss of jobs in Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities and uncertainty among the remaining employees, investors, and supplier companies. This is in a region already suffering job losses from reductions in forestry, mining, and other resource industries.”
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