Fall is a bittersweet season for cottagers. Gone are the hot days tempered by refreshing swims, but replacing them are breathtaking fall colours and cozy evenings spent curled up with a book.
Now that the season has officially arrived, bringing with it cooler temps and the crunch of leaves below foot, here’s a look at this fall’s weather forecast:
Temperature
Get out your layers because Ontario’s cottage country is poised for a traditional fall, at least temperature-wise. “The temperature outlook is around normal for fall, maybe slightly favouring warmer than usual conditions. But in general, not extremely hot or extremely cold,” says Environment Canada meteorologist Bill Merryfield.
In cottage country, Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast map indicates that across September, October, and November there is a 45 per cent chance that temperatures will sit above average, a 36 per cent chance they’ll remain near normal, and just a 19 per cent chance that we’ll have a colder than usual fall, based on average conditions between 1991 to 2020.
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At The Weather Network, meteorologists have said Ontario will see an “unhurried” fall, with moderate temperatures extending late into the season. According to the network, mid-September through mid-October should see temperatures that run close to seasonal, but that a delayed arrival of consistently cold temperatures could mean a tardy ski season. “Watch for a fall fake-out,” they warn. “An early season chill doesn’t spell the beginning of winter.”
Precipitation
While Merryfield says it’s hard to predict precipitation months in advance, it’s possible this year’s headline-grabbing super El Niño could mean less rain for Ontario and Quebec this fall.
“El Nino tends to keep quite a strong lid on Atlantic hurricane activity. And we actually have seen that this hurricane season, there’s not been a single declared hurricane,” he says. “We have a couple of months to go before we’re out of the woods, but a hurricane or tropical storm is less likely to affect Eastern Canada or possibly Quebec and Ontario this year than in a normal hurricane season.”
In a regular hurricane season, tropical moisture combines with cooler fall weather and fall rains in Ontario, intensifying precipitation, according to the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority.
The Weather Network backs up Merryfield’s outlook, saying “fewer classic fall storms are expected overall.” However, Merryfield adds that we could see a cloudier fall than usual. “It’s an unusual feature in this particular forecast, in that enhanced cloudiness actually covers practically the entire 48 U.S. states, and then creeps up into southeastern Canada as well,” he says. “That’s something we’ll have to pay some attention to research-wise.”
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Fall colours
For leaf peepers anxious to see the first leaves turn, Dan Sharp, an arborist at Davey Tree Expert Co., says Northern Ontario and higher elevation areas generally begin showing colour first, with central Ontario cottage country and southern Ontario following over the coming weeks. Among the first trees to turn are maples.
“This year, many arborists across Ontario have also observed signs of drought and heat stress in maple populations following a challenging growing season,” says Sharp. “In some areas, stressed maples have begun showing fall colour earlier than usual or are displaying patchy colouration as a response to environmental stress.”
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He notes that while this early colour can make it seem as though autumn has arrived ahead of schedule, it is often an indication that the individual tree is responding to difficult growing conditions rather than simply the change in season.
According to Sharp, Ontario’s fall colours will likely peak from late September into early October, with southern areas typically peaking somewhat later. But the crimson and amber hues won’t last for long. “Most locations have about one to two weeks of prime viewing before leaves begin dropping more rapidly,” says Sharp. “Wind, heavy rain, drought stress, or early frost events can shorten that window, while stable autumn weather can extend it.”
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