Canada’s meteorologists are logging their long-range forecasts and if the right systems align, the country could experience a warmer-than-average spring, especially around the Great Lakes.
But don’t go running for your swimsuit quite yet. It all depends on the effects of La Niña. And Western Canada’s temperatures are still a toss-up.
“We are in the midst of a rather weak La Niña, and La Niña usually produces cooler temperatures in Canada in winter and often right into spring in Western Canada,” says Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).
La Niña is a weather pattern that occurs over the Pacific Ocean. Due to the Pacific’s vast size, it has a major influence on Canada’s weather. Trade winds over the ocean blow east to west. These winds push warm ocean water towards countries such as Indonesia, bringing warm weather and precipitation. This leaves cold ocean water to bubble up near North America, leading to cold, wet conditions in Canada. This is the La Niña effect.
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Occasionally, atmospheric conditions break down those trade winds, meaning the warm ocean water stays near North America. This leads to warm, dry conditions in Canada, and is called El Niño.
Since Canada is experiencing a weak La Niña, Merryfield says it’s difficult to predict whether Western Canada will experience below-normal, normal, or above-normal temperatures this spring. The cooling effects of La Niña will be fighting against the long-term warming trend caused by climate change. According to the ECCC, Canada’s annual average temperature has increased by two degrees Celsius over the last 75 years.
Eastern Canada is tilting towards warmer-than-normal temperatures, especially in the south. This is because the effects of La Niña aren’t strong enough to have a profound effect on the eastern half of the country.
But this doesn’t mean you should break out the shades and short shorts. The Farmer’s Almanac is predicting higher-than-normal precipitation across B.C. and the western Prairies, as well as southeastern Ontario and southeastern Quebec.
Merryfield concurs. Although, he adds that precipitation forecasts tend to be less confident than temperature forecasts. His current prediction is that the effects of La Niña will bring wetter weather to Western Canada and the areas around the Great Lakes.
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If this is the case, we could have a similar spring to the last few years—except for last year. “Four of the past five winters have been influenced by La Niña. That was interrupted only by a rather strong El Niño event last winter, which brought very warm temperatures across Canada during the winter,” Merryfield says. “During the three La Niña events before that, they brought pretty cool winter and spring conditions to Western Canada, but that influence did not extend to Eastern Canada in the spring.”
Instead, central Ontario eastward has experienced warmer-than-normal springs over the last four years thanks to a warming effect coming off the North Atlantic.
According to Merryfield, the consistency of La Niña events over the last five years is unusual. “That type of consistency has probably only happened once before in the last 75 or so years,” he says.
As a result, we could be in for a neutral winter next December, meaning we won’t see extreme cold or extreme heat. Instead, temperatures will remain around the long-term average without significant deviations.
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