If you remember anything about 2024, you might remember it being very warm. That was largely due to a combination of ongoing climate change and a strong El Niño system that led to 2024 being the warmest year on record globally. In Canada, winter temperatures were 5.2°C above the historical baseline, and the summer saw long, intense heatwaves. Now, meteorologists are saying we will likely experience a “Super El Niño” this year. So, what does this mean for Canadians?
A Super El Niño is essentially a powerful El Niño system. They occur roughly every 10 to 20 years and happen when the surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator rise over two degrees. (A regular El Niño occur when there is a 0.5-degree increase above the long-term average.)
As the El Niño takes shape, this summer will likely be defined by fluctuating temperatures, compared to recent summers, which saw more prolonged periods of intense heat across much of Canada, according to The Weather Network. In B.C., they predict less rain and higher than average temperatures in early summer, which raises risks of wildfires. But they’ll also see summer 2026 have more periods of relief, instead of last year’s “heat dome” summer.
Moving further east, conditions are expected to cool off, with fluctuating temperatures making it hard for summer heat to stick, especially in early summer. For cottagers in Southern Ontario, this means colder lakes and historically average temperatures. We can also expect more rain and thunderstorms than usual, according to The Weather Network.
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In the Maritimes, the El Niño system could bring more wind shear over the Atlantic, reducing the chances of hurricanes making landfall during storm season, which runs from June to November. This could mean cottagers in typically hard-hit regions such as Cape Breton may enjoy calmer weather, and can worry less about structural damage to property. (Though it only takes one landfall for serious damage to occur.)
But Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, says a Super El Niño would be more noticeable at the end of the year, when warming in the Pacific Ocean reaches its peak. “This is when we start to see unusually warm winters, especially in western and central Canada,” he says. “Although with Super El Niños, this warmth can stretch all the way from the Pacific to the Atlantic coasts.”
Warmer winters, Merryfield says, means reduced snowpack and earlier snowmelt, especially around the Rocky Mountains and in western Canada. Come spring 2027, this would result in lower stream flows and drier soil in the region. In past El Niño years, these conditions have shortened ski seasons, reduced hydroelectric productivity, and strained agricultural production.
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“Early snow melt and somewhat drier conditions would certainly be conducive to forest fires as well,” says Merryfield. He says this impact could include popular cottaging regions such as the Okanagan-Shuswap area, and parts of Ontario cottage country. “Still, other less predictable influences, such as the amount of spring and summer rainfall, will also factor into wildfire risk in spring and summer 2027,” he adds.
While a Super El Niño has not been officially declared just yet, Merryfield says there is a strong chance it will be confirmed over the next several months. If a Super El Niño does emerge in the next year, it will only exacerbate increasingly volatile weather patterns and rising temperatures, he says.
“Every time there’s a major El Niño event in recent decades, it’s propelled the world further into uncharted territory,” says Merryfield. “It’s extremely probable we’ll see another temperature record in 2027, possibly even 2026, temporarily pushing global temperatures above 1.5 degrees of warming since the second half of the 19th century.”
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