General

For the first time in a decade almost all of the Great Lakes’ water levels are below average. Here’s why

North America's Great Lakes Photo by Shutterstock/KissCat

Cottage owners on the Great Lakes may notice a change in the waterbodies this spring. A report from Environment Canada says that all the Great Lakes’ water levels, except Erie, are below average.

“It was a very dry fall throughout the Great Lakes, so all the lakes are in greater than average decline,” says Frank Seglenieks, a water resources engineer with Environment Canada and the co-author of the report. “Anywhere between 30 to 40 centimetres, depending on the lake.”

The report recorded March water levels on Superior the lowest it’s been since 2013, Huron and Michigan the lowest they’ve been since 2014, and Ontario the lowest it’s been since 2003. Lake Erie remained a centimetre above its long-term average, but even it was the lowest it’s been since 2014.

Why is this robot boat mapping the Great Lakes?

The low water levels won’t impact cottagers on waterbodies upstream from the Great Lakes, but cottagers on the Great Lakes will notice a difference. That’s because this is the first time in 10 years that the Great Lakes haven’t recorded higher-than-average water levels.

“If you have a fixed dock, maybe that boat is a little harder to get into because it’s lower,” says Seglenieks. “And the rocks. Maybe when you were motoring in for the past 10 years, you haven’t had to worry about rocks, but now it’s just a little bit closer, and if you come in the wrong way, maybe your propeller is going to interact with those rocks.”

Seglenieks adds that from an environmental perspective, the drop in water levels isn’t something to be worried about. It’s natural, with water levels cycling through highs and lows. “From 1998 to 2013, we had 15 years of low water levels. And then since 2013 until about now, we’ve had higher-than-average water levels,” he says. “There’s no real pattern that we’ve seen.”

The swings in water levels do appear to be getting more drastic, though. This could be a result of climate change. Segleniks points to Michigan and Huron as an example. In 2013, the two lakes saw record low monthly water levels, while in 2020, they saw record high monthly water levels. “In seven years, we saw extremes on both ends and with a changing climate under climate change, the analysis we’ve had is that we would see more of those extremes, both high and low,” he says. “But it’s one of those things that until we’ve got another 10 to 20 years of data, can we really say this has actually shifted?”

Scientist Katharine Hayhoe on the effects of climate change at the cottage

The water levels are still half a metre above record lows, and Seglenieks says recent wet weather has boosted all the Great Lakes closer to their averages. Michigan and Huron rose by 12 centimetres when they typically only rise by five centimetres at this time of year. That was the sixth largest rise for Michigan and Huron ever. “We have records going back to 1918, so when you’re talking 100-plus years to be the sixth largest drive, that’s pretty significant,” he says

Most of the lakes are now only 10 to 20 centimetres below average, and a wet summer could boost them higher. “It all depends on what we see in precipitation over the next three to six months,” says Seglenieks.

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