Warm days on the dock are what us cottagers spend winter dreaming of. And this summer’s shaping up to be a hot one.
On June 10, Environment and Climate Change Canada released its seasonal outlook for summer. According to the experts, most of Canada will experience higher-than-normal temperatures over the next couple months. The only exception is northwestern regions along the Beaufort Sea, such as the Yukon, where cooler-than-normal temperatures are possible.
Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, says that it won’t be a prolonged heat. Instead, it will come in waves with intermittent periods of cooler temperatures. He adds that eastern Canada is more likely to experience higher-than-normal temperatures this summer compared to western Canada. This is because of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.
According to Merryfield, we are in a negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This is a long-term fluctuation in the Pacific Ocean’s temperature, shifting from warm to cool every 20 to 30 years. Right now, we’re in a cool phase.
“That brings cooler-than-normal ocean temperatures to the Canadian west coast and tends to contribute a cooling influence in the summer that extends between B.C. and southern Yukon,” he says.
But even with this cooling influence, Merryfield says there’s still a high chance it will be a warmer-than-normal summer for west coasters.
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Eastern Canada is feeling the effects of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, another pattern of ocean surface temperatures. Right now, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is in a positive phase, bringing warmer temperatures. In particular, Merryfield says, northern Quebec and Labrador will feel these warming effects.
The other factor affecting Canada’s warmer-than-normal summer is climate change. “Canada has been warming, on average, at about twice the rate of the average global temperature,” says Merryfield. Compared to 1948, summer temperatures in Canada have risen on average by 1.8 degrees. The situation is even worse in northern Canada, which has risen by two to three degrees.
Merryfield explains that higher northern latitudes, particularly the Arctic, are the fastest warming regions on earth. This is because the sea ice is melting, and the snow is becoming less prevalent each year.
“Sea ice and snow are both highly reflective. They tend to reflect away the warming influence of the sun,” he says. “But if you remove snow and sea ice, then the ocean and land regions that are uncovered are much darker and tend to absorb the solar radiation.”
Warmer-than-normal temperatures combined with a dry spring, particularly in the prairies, has also introduced an increased risk of wildfires. There have already been more than 2,000 wildfires in Canada this year, and if temperatures remain hot, they could grow worse.
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Strangely, the wildfire smoke could also cool regions of Canada. It blocks the sunlight, Merryfield explains. A new study from the University of Washington has even shown that wildfire smoke is slowing global warming. There’s so much smoke from boreal forest wildfires in Canada and Siberia that it’s slowing warming globally by 12 per cent, and by 38 per cent in the Arctic. This is because the smoke is sheltering the Arctic’s sea ice from the sun, slowing its melting.
While the wildfire smoke may be helping in the fight against global warming, it’s not good for people. Health Canada recommends limiting outdoor activities when wildfire smoke is present and keeping indoor air clean by closing windows and using a good quality filter in your ventilation system.
In preparation for the warmer-than-normal temperatures this summer, Health Canada advises staying hydrated and wearing loose-fitted, light-coloured clothing. You should also keep your house cool by closing the shades during the day, opening your windows at night, and avoiding cooking with the oven.
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